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| Mr Kaberuka |
Africa's
robust 4.5 percent economic growth forecast for 2012 should not prompt
premature celebration, the African Development Bank (AfDB) cautioned on Monday.
The bank cited the festering euro zone crisis and chronic youth joblessness, as the main obstacle for the continent to register the said growth.
Ranked
as the poorest continent in the world, Africa has posted strong growth rates in
recent years, second only to Asia, drawing rising inward investment and giving
rise to talk of its economic resilience, accompanied by much
self-congratulation among officials.
"I'll
be cautioning against excessive exuberance," Donald Kaberuka, AfDB
president said at the launch of its African Economic Outlook, at the start of
the bank's annual meeting.
The
AfDB's forecast for 2012 outpaces the 3.4 percent growth rate posted in 2011,
after the Arab spring in North Africa cut the northern region's growth in
economic output to 0.5 percent.
In
contrast, sub-Saharan Africa grew by more than 5 percent, with the exception of
South Africa, the continent's most advanced economy, which expanded output by
3.1 percent.
The
euro zone and other rich nations would take some time to resolve the issues
bedevilling their economies, Kaberuka said.
"That
will have implications on the growth of the continent," he said, adding
that any economic slowdown by large emerging markets like China would cause
further problems.
Despite
the growing economic role of large emerging markets like the BRICS in Africa,
Europe remained a vital economic partner for the continent, accounting for more
than half of external trade, said Mthuli Ncube, AfDB chief economist.
The
euro zone crisis could hit demand for Africa's export commodities, denting
growth in economies like Kenya, which also depend on Europe as a source of
visitors.
"The
visitors from Europe will certainly feel the pressure to travel less,"
Ncube said, adding that remittances from Africans living there could also be
hurt.
POLITICAL
STRIFE
The
AfDB said the continent's economic growth also faced risks from political
crises with the potential to spill over to neighbouring states, thus curbing
overall growth.
Mali
and Guinea Bissau have both experienced coups this year while Uganda, Burundi,
Kenya and other nations in the horn are all militarily involved in efforts to
secure peace in Somalia, after decades of conflict.
The
impact of the political turmoil had already started to be noticed in
development studies carried out by the bank on key indicators, Kaberuka said.
"Mali
was scoring very well, now we are back to square one," he said.
Governments
on the continent also needed to do more to ensure they were creating jobs for
the legions of young people who could pose a social challenge if they felt left
out of the economic growth, AfDB said.
"Africa
is on a good path but of course it needs to be inclusive, it needs to create
jobs for it to be a better quality of economic growth," Ncube said.
AfDB
says youth unemployment in most African countries is at least 25 per cent
Source:
The Reuters,http://www.reuters.com, reported by Duncan Miriri from Arusha, Tanzania
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