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| Dr Mgimwa |
Experts say the annual headline inflation that has stagnated
at 12.1 per cent in the past two months was authentic but far from the policy
goal of 5 per cent.
They also note that the average monthly declining rate of
0.63 per cent remains low and could dash the hope of arriving at the
single-digit goal mid this year.
A University of Dar es Salaam Senior Economics Lecturer, Dr
Jehovanness Aikael, said the declining rate of about one per cent is acceptable
as the figure was high, at 19.7 per cent at the beginning of last year.
“The dropping rate is of no concern at all, it could have
been a concern if the rate dropped like Kenya and Uganda that is too fast to be
realistic,” Dr Aikael told the ‘Daily News’ through the phone.
The economist said given the current dropping rate, Tanzania
would achieve a remarkable single-digit rate in the next two to three months.
The Minister for Finance and Economic Affairs, Dr William Mgimwa, told
journalists in Dar es Salaam that the inflation was projected to reach a
single-digit, coming this June, without giving figure.
However, Mzumbe University’s Dar es Salaam Business School
Senior economics lecturer, Dr Honest Ngowi seconded the argument of his
counterpart, cautioning however that the inflation for December is higher than
the rest of EAC partner states’.
“It is still much far from the policy goal of single digit
of about 5 per cent… although the decline is good, it remains at a snail pace,”
Dr Ngowi said. Also, he said, “talking to men and women in the streets, they do
not feel the decline in their lives. Faster decline in inflation is needed to
reach the policy goals but most importantly to ease people’s hardships.”
In the EAC, Dr Ngowi said, the bloc wants a single currency
by December 2013: “I see it to be the same dream as that of 2012 when the
single currency project could not see the light of the day.
“If it is to be a
reality this year, inflation in Tanzania has to decline fast to reach the
inflation macroeconomics convergence criteria of about 4 per cent that is
needed before embracing the single currency.”
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in its report
released yesterday that the country headline inflation of last December
stagnated at 12.1 per cent, the similar rate recorded in November.
But going by
data visualization for the three east African state, it shows that the country
inflation for the last one year dropped by 7.6 per cent from 19.7 of last
January to 12.1 per cent of last December.
For instance, at the beginning of last year, Kenya’s
inflation rate was 18.9 per cent and Uganda’s at 25.68 per cent while Tanzania
stood at 19.8 per cent. However, at the end of last December, Nairobi and
Kampala reduced their inflation rates to 3.2 and 5.5 per cent, respectively,
against Dar es Salaam’s 12.1 per cent.
Source: The Daily News, www.dailynews.co.tz, reported by Abduel Elinaza in Dar es Salaam
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