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| Mr Onyango-Obbo |
Mid last-week, East Africa heard from Tanzania the kind of story it
rarely reads from that country.
Dr Stephen Ulimboka, the man who had been leading the striking doctors’
side in negotiations with the government, was set upon by five armed men in Dar
es Salaam, kidnapped, beaten, and left for dead 30 kilometres outside the city.
By the time the story reached other East African countries and made its
way through social media, it had grown quite colourful, with accounts about how
his attackers had tied him on top of a tree for dramatic effect...
The mainstream media in Tanzania has been cautious about apportioning
blame, but there is no shortage of posts on the Internet alleging the Tanzanian
government did it. There is no evidence for that, but many bloggers and
citizens of Twitter and Facebook are not the types to let that get in the way.
The Tanzanian paper, The Citizen had a promising story entitled,
“Puzzle: Who wanted to kill Dr Ulimboka?,” but it didn’t name names. However,
it quoted one of the doctors’ leaders as blaming the government for the attack.
In the past, nearly all other countries in the wider East African
region — Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, the Sudans, Uganda — have
witnessed these kinds of things through difficult phases of their history.
Tanzania hasn’t, in part because it the only country in the region to have
escaped military coups, civil wars, temporary regime collapse, or widespread
election violence.
The Ulimboka incident, like past brief episodes of election violence in
the Zanzibar islands and the recent attack on Christian churches there by
Islamic radicals, suggests that Tanzania too has the East African “demon” seed.
The question is when will it break fully free and wreak havoc?
East Africa, like the rest of Africa, has gone through definite phases:
Independence euphoria; post-Independence pessimism marked by one-party
dictatorships, military rule, and revolutionary wars; the post-Cold War revival
of the late 1980s and 1990s, marked by economic and political liberalisation;
the 20th Century Tail-end Relapse, the 10 years from about 1995-2005 when the
80s and 90s reforms looked like they had failed, nations were sinking under
foreign debt and multiparty leaders were stealing elections like the old
one-party dictators and many fell back into despair; then today we have the New
Buoyancy, fuelled by discoveries of oil and gas, marked by a new struggle over
the affections of Africa by the Chinese and the West, and the rise of hubris.
At any of these stages, though, countries can have a “rogue detour.” A
besieged leader, ruling party, or kitchen Cabinet, afraid power is slipping,
and distrustful of the security organs, will set up a shadowy paramilitary
group or arm pro-ruling-party goons to beat down those who threaten its rule.
Countries survive one-party dictatorships, military tyranny, and
recover from civil wars. However, no leader or ruling party has held on to
power in East Africa for very long after their regime has taken the rogue
detour. Dar es Salaam would do well to heed the ill omens.
Source: The EastAfrican,www.theeastafrican.co.ke, reported by Charles Onyango-Obbo, who is Nation Media Group’s executive editor for
Africa & Digital Media. E-mail: cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com. Twitter: @cobbo3
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